A Simplified Risk Score to Estimate the Risk of Contrast-Induced Nephropathy after Contrast Exposure.

INTRODUCTION: Scores are available to predict the probability of contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN) after cardiac interventions, but not many scores are available for non-cardiac interventions and there are none for intravenous exposure to contrast. We designed this study to develop a simplified score to determine the probability of developing CIN in patients exposed to the parenteral contrast medium.

METHODS: This was a prospective study of patients who received parenteral contrast. Of 1300 patients, the first 1000 comprised the derivation cohort and the next 300 comprised the validation cohort. The patient variables in the development cohort were studied using univariate analysis. Statistically significant individual variables were used as independent variables, and CIN was used as the dependent variable in the final multivariate logistic regression model. Then, the risk score was obtained and validated.

RESULTS: The incidence of CIN was 3.8%. The risk factors, namely the presence of diabetes mellitus, e-GFR, and route and volume of contrast material were significantly associated with the risk of CIN ( P < 0.05). The developed risk score had a sensitivity of 90.4% and specificity of 98.78%. The overall accuracy was 97.8%. The values of AUC of ROC in the development and validation datasets were high. This indicated that the predicted CIN risk score correlated well with the calibration and discriminative characteristics.

CONCLUSIONS: The route and volume of contrast administered, low e-GFR, and diabetes mellitus were the significant risk factors. The developed risk score exhibited very good sensitivity and specificity and excellent accuracy in predicting the probability of CIN.