Underlying dentin shadows (ICDAS 4) in occlusal surface of permanent teeth have low progression rate after 1-2 years.

This prospective cohort study assessed the radiographic progression of underlying dentin shadows (UDS) on the occlusal surfaces of permanent posterior teeth of adolescents and young adults over 1-2 years and to identify possible risk factors. A total of 149 UDS lesions (from 101 individuals) were included at baseline. Each participant had to present at least one UDS to be considered eligible for the study. Data collection included the application of a questionnaire, clinical examination, and bilateral bitewing radiographs, performed at baseline and after 1-2 years. The association between possible predictors and UDS progression (defined radiographically as an increase in the radiographic score from baseline to follow-up) was assessed using Weibull regression models. Hazard ratios (HR) and their 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated. A total of 81 individuals (mean age 24.0, standard deviation 8.03) were reexamined after 1-2 years (742 occlusal surfaces, of which 118 were UDS). The overall progression rate was 8.6% after 1-2 years, being 12.6% for UDS without baseline radiolucency and 20% for UDS with baseline radiolucency. The risk analysis showed that UDS without radiolucency at baseline had a similar likelihood of progression (adjusted HR=1.71, 95%CI=0.68-4.32, p=0.26) while UDS with radiolucency at baseline were more likely to progress (adjusted HR=2.96, 95%CI=1.06-8.26, p=0.04) than the reference category (sound occlusal surfaces without radiolucency). These estimates were adjusted for caries prevalence, tooth type, and arch. This study showed low progression rates of UDS after 1-2 years. The presence of radiolucency at baseline was found to predict UDS progression.