Model for End Stage Liver Disease (MELD) Score: A Tool for Prognosis and Prediction of Mortality in Patients With Decompensated Liver Cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND: Decompensated liver disease has become a common occurrence in medical wards. It has become the third most common cause of death in medical wards. This high mortality rate has become a matter of concern. It is important that a reliable scoring system helps to stratify patients with liver cirrhosis who will require liver transplantation.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the value of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score in assessing the mortality of patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis over one month period (30 days).

METHODS AND MATERIALS: A longitudinal study was conducted. A total of 110 patients diagnosed with decompensated liver cirrhosis were recruited from the gastroenterology clinic and medical wards of the University of Benin Teaching Hospital (UBTH), Benin City. The patients were recruited consecutively and met the inclusion criteria for the study. Demographic data, history, clinical, biochemical, ultrasonographic, and liver biopsy findings were evaluated in the patients who participated in this study.  Results: The mean age of the patients was 57 ± 11.06 years. Out of the 110 study participants, a 2.9:1 male-to-female ratio was appreciated in the patient population, with a total of 82 males and 28 females. Multiple logistic regression analysis identified MELD scores as an independent predictor of mortality in the studied patients. Predictive values of the MELD score for 1-month mortality which was analyzed using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves showed that the MELD score had a sensitivity of 72.2% and positive predictive value of 93.6% with an area under the curve of 0.926 for all-cause mortality among decompensated liver cirrhosis patients.

CONCLUSION: MELD score is a good predictor of mortality among patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis over a 1-month (30 days) period.