Predictors of recurrence of cancer-associated venous thromboembolism after discontinuation of anticoagulant therapy: a multicenter cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Data on recurrence after the end of anticoagulation for a first event of cancer-associated venous thromboembolism (VTE) are scarce.

OBJECTIVES: Our aim was to assess predictors of VTE recurrence during a 1-year follow-up period.

METHODS: This study is an analysis of RIETE, an international, multicenter, prospective cohort study of patients diagnosed with VTE. Patients had to have active cancer at the time of VTE and to have withdrawn from anticoagulation after 3 months of full treatment. Analyses were performed using Fine and Gray models, with death as a competing risk, and multiple imputation of missing data was performed by chained equations.

RESULTS: Among 14 318 patients with cancer-associated VTE, 3414 had undergone time-limited anticoagulation for at least 3 months. The cumulative incidence function for recurrent VTE was 10.2% (95% CI, 9.1-11.5) at 1 year. Chronic kidney disease (a subhazard ratio [sHR] of 1.08 for 10-mL/min decrease in glomerular filtration rate; 95% CI, 1.02-1.14); cancer of the lung, brain, stomach, esophagus, liver, or ovary (sHR, 3.56; 95% CI, 1.07-11.80; compared with cancer of the oropharynx, larynx, or melanoma); cancer of the pancreas, the biliary tract, or of unknown origin (sHR, 6.86; 95% CI, 1.89-24.85); inferior vena cava filter (sHR, 3.16; 95% CI, 1.75-5.71); postthrombotic syndrome (sHR, 2.09; 95% CI, 1.06-4.15); and residual pulmonary thrombotic obstruction (sHR, 2.58; 95% CI, 1.38-4.82) were predictive of recurrence. Surgery during the 2 months before VTE was predictive of absence of recurrence (sHR, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.40-0.92).

CONCLUSION: One year after anticoagulant cessation for cancer-associated VTE, approximately 10% of patients experienced recurrence. Discontinuing anticoagulant therapy seems safe, mainly in surgery-associated VTE.