Prognostic value of diffuse reduction of spleen density on postoperative survival of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma: A retrospective study.

PURPOSE: It is difficult to predict the prognosis of patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) before radical operation. The purpose of this study was to explore the connection between the diffuse reduction of spleen density on computed tomography (DROSD) and the postoperative prognosis of patients with PDAC.

PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 160 patients with PDAC who underwent radical surgery in the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University were enrolled. Cox regression analysis was used to cast the overall survival (OS) and evaluate the prognostic factors. Nomogram was used to forecast the possibility of 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year OS. The prediction accuracy and clinical net benefit are performed by concordance index (C-index), calibration curve, time-dependent receiver operating characteristics (tdROC), and decision curve analysis.

RESULTS: In multivariable Cox analysis, DROSD is independently related to OS. Advanced age, TNM stage, neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio, and severe complications were also independent prognostic factors. The calibration curves of nomogram showed optimal agreement between prediction and observation. The C-index of nomogram is 0.662 (95%CI, 0.606-0.754). The area under tdROC curve for a 3-year OS of nomogram is 0.770.

CONCLUSION: DROSD is an independent risk factor for an OS of PDAC. We developed a nomogram that combined imaging features, clinicopathological factors, and systemic inflammatory response to provide a personalized risk assessment for patients with PDAC.