The development of a nomogram model for the individualized prediction of diaper dermatitis risk in pediatric hospitalized children aged 1-36 months.

AIMS AND OBJECTIVE: To develop a nomogram model for individualized prediction of diaper dermatitis in pediatric hospitalized infants and toddlers aged 1-36 months.

BACKGROUND: Diaper dermatitis is a common skin health problem in pediatrics, which brings pain and discomfort to the child. However, there is a scarcity of risk prediction tools for diaper dermatitis in infants and toddlers hospitalized in pediatrics.

DESIGN: A cross-sectional study.

METHODS: 210 cases each for caregivers and hospitalized children aged 1-36 months were selected as the research objects. A prediction nomogram model was established based on the risk factors according to the results of univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis. The predictive performance of the nomogram model was evaluated by discrimination and calibration. The clinical utility of the model was evaluated by decision curve analysis. This study was reported using the TRIPOD checklist.

RESULTS: 41 hospitalized children with diaper dermatitis with a prevalence of 19.52%. The risk factors included: age in months, diarrhea, history of diaper dermatitis, without prophylactic application of buttock protection products, frequency of diaper change per day ≤6.6 times, and the level of caregivers' knowledge of infantile diaper dermatitis. The results showed that the C-index of the nomogram model was 0.891(95% CI: 0.832, 0.950), the calibration curve manifested a satisfactory consistency, and the net benefit was satisfactory.

CONCLUSIONS: The nomogram has a good predictive ability and satisfactory clinical utility, which is useful for pediatric medical staff screening high-risk patients with diaper dermatitis.

RELEVANCE TO CLINICAL PRACTICE: The prediction nomogram model can help pediatric medical staff to calculate the risk probability of diaper dermatitis in pediatrics, formulate interventions timely, and optimize pediatric DD standardized care protocols. NO PATIENT OR PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION: the children's caregivers enrolled in this study only for the data collection.