Immediate effects of COVID-19 on the global dairy sector.

CONTEXT: The emergence and rapid spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has posed an unprecedented threat to both societies and economies. The dairy sector is an example of the challenges that food supply chains have faced due to the pandemic.

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to provide primary evidence of the immediate effects of COVID-19 on the global dairy sector, particularly focusing on the outcome of the implemented response mechanisms, and the potential medium and long-term implications of the pandemic on the sector.

METHODS: We employed a longitudinal qualitative analysis framework that combines the use of questionnaires, media-search, focus-group discussions, semi-structured interviews, and secondary evidence reviews. Information was gathered at two points in time: three months after the beginning of the outbreak and one year later. We applied this framework in five different geographical regions: Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America, and North America.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Our study indicates that the pandemic has been perceived as a series of episodes affecting the sector from both demand and supply sides. These waves have impacted the sector differently depending on regions and countries' trade profiles, relative resource scarcity, per capita income, and market structure. Although in one year the sector has mostly recovered from the shock, the analysis concludes that the pandemic has accelerated on-going structural changes taking place in the dairy sector.

SIGNIFICANCE: The study expands existing knowledge about the effects of the pandemic on the dairy sector and adds to the newly evolving literature about the medium and long-term effects of the COVID-19 on food systems across the globe. Despite the preliminary nature of the results, they provide important insights to inform sectorial policy discussions.