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Agricultural Systems

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https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29302132/improving-the-use-of-crop-models-for-risk-assessment-and-climate-change-adaptation
#1
Andrew J Challinor, Christoph Müller, Senthold Asseng, Chetan Deva, Kathryn Jane Nicklin, Daniel Wallach, Eline Vanuytrecht, Stephen Whitfield, Julian Ramirez-Villegas, Ann-Kristin Koehler
Crop models are used for an increasingly broad range of applications, with a commensurate proliferation of methods. Careful framing of research questions and development of targeted and appropriate methods are therefore increasingly important. In conjunction with the other authors in this special issue, we have developed a set of criteria for use of crop models in assessments of impacts, adaptation and risk. Our analysis drew on the other papers in this special issue, and on our experience in the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017 and the MACSUR, AgMIP and ISIMIP projects...
January 2018: Agricultural Systems
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/29302131/climate-smart-agriculture-farm-household-typologies-and-food-security-an-ex-ante-assessment-from-eastern-india
#2
Santiago Lopez-Ridaura, Romain Frelat, Mark T van Wijk, Diego Valbuena, Timothy J Krupnik, M L Jat
One of the great challenges in agricultural development and sustainable intensification is the assurance of social equity in food security oriented interventions. Development practitioners, researchers, and policy makers alike could benefit from prior insight into what interventions or environmental shocks might differentially affect farmers' food security status, in order to move towards more informed and equitable development. We examined the food security status and livelihood activities of 269 smallholder farm households (HHs) in Bihar, India...
January 2018: Agricultural Systems
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28867871/mapping-regional-risks-from-climate-change-for-rainfed-rice-cultivation-in-india
#3
Kuntal Singh, Colin J McClean, Patrick Büker, Sue E Hartley, Jane K Hill
Global warming is predicted to increase in the future, with detrimental consequences for rainfed crops that are dependent on natural rainfall (i.e. non-irrigated). Given that many crops grown under rainfed conditions support the livelihoods of low-income farmers, it is important to highlight the vulnerability of rainfed areas to climate change in order to anticipate potential risks to food security. In this paper, we focus on India, where ~ 50% of rice is grown under rainfed conditions, and we employ statistical models (climate envelope models (CEMs) and boosted regression trees (BRTs)) to map changes in climate suitability for rainfed rice cultivation at a regional level (~ 18 × 18 km cell resolution) under projected future (2050) climate change (IPCC RCPs 2...
September 2017: Agricultural Systems
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28701818/toward-a-new-generation-of-agricultural-system-data-models-and-knowledge-products-state-of-agricultural-systems-science
#4
James W Jones, John M Antle, Bruno Basso, Kenneth J Boote, Richard T Conant, Ian Foster, H Charles J Godfray, Mario Herrero, Richard E Howitt, Sander Janssen, Brian A Keating, Rafael Munoz-Carpena, Cheryl H Porter, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Tim R Wheeler
We review the current state of agricultural systems science, focusing in particular on the capabilities and limitations of agricultural systems models. We discuss the state of models relative to five different Use Cases spanning field, farm, landscape, regional, and global spatial scales and engaging questions in past, current, and future time periods. Contributions from multiple disciplines have made major advances relevant to a wide range of agricultural system model applications at various spatial and temporal scales...
July 2017: Agricultural Systems
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28701817/towards-a-new-generation-of-agricultural-system-data-models-and-knowledge-products-design-and-improvement
#5
John M Antle, Bruno Basso, Richard T Conant, H Charles J Godfray, James W Jones, Mario Herrero, Richard E Howitt, Brian A Keating, Rafael Munoz-Carpena, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Pablo Tittonell, Tim R Wheeler
This paper presents ideas for a new generation of agricultural system models that could meet the needs of a growing community of end-users exemplified by a set of Use Cases. We envision new data, models and knowledge products that could accelerate the innovation process that is needed to achieve the goal of achieving sustainable local, regional and global food security. We identify desirable features for models, and describe some of the potential advances that we envisage for model components and their integration...
July 2017: Agricultural Systems
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28701816/brief-history-of-agricultural-systems-modeling
#6
James W Jones, John M Antle, Bruno Basso, Kenneth J Boote, Richard T Conant, Ian Foster, H Charles J Godfray, Mario Herrero, Richard E Howitt, Sander Janssen, Brian A Keating, Rafael Munoz-Carpena, Cheryl H Porter, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Tim R Wheeler
Agricultural systems science generates knowledge that allows researchers to consider complex problems or take informed agricultural decisions. The rich history of this science exemplifies the diversity of systems and scales over which they operate and have been studied. Modeling, an essential tool in agricultural systems science, has been accomplished by scientists from a wide range of disciplines, who have contributed concepts and tools over more than six decades. As agricultural scientists now consider the "next generation" models, data, and knowledge products needed to meet the increasingly complex systems problems faced by society, it is important to take stock of this history and its lessons to ensure that we avoid re-invention and strive to consider all dimensions of associated challenges...
July 2017: Agricultural Systems
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28701815/next-generation-crop-models-a-modular-approach-to-model-early-vegetative-and-reproductive-development-of-the-common-bean-phaseolus-vulgaris-l
#7
C Hwang, M J Correll, S A Gezan, L Zhang, M S Bhakta, C E Vallejos, K J Boote, J A Clavijo-Michelangeli, J W Jones
The next generation of gene-based crop models offers the potential of predicting crop vegetative and reproductive development based on genotype and weather data as inputs. Here, we illustrate an approach for developing a dynamic modular gene-based model to simulate changes in main stem node numbers, time to first anthesis, and final node number on the main stem of common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.). In the modules, these crop characteristics are functions of relevant genes (quantitative trait loci (QTL)), the environment (E), and QTL × E interactions...
July 2017: Agricultural Systems
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28701814/modelling-the-impacts-of-pests-and-diseases-on-agricultural-systems
#8
M Donatelli, R D Magarey, S Bregaglio, L Willocquet, J P M Whish, S Savary
The improvement and application of pest and disease models to analyse and predict yield losses including those due to climate change is still a challenge for the scientific community. Applied modelling of crop diseases and pests has mostly targeted the development of support capabilities to schedule scouting or pesticide applications. There is a need for research to both broaden the scope and evaluate the capabilities of pest and disease models. Key research questions not only involve the assessment of the potential effects of climate change on known pathosystems, but also on new pathogens which could alter the (still incompletely documented) impacts of pests and diseases on agricultural systems...
July 2017: Agricultural Systems
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28701813/towards-a-new-generation-of-agricultural-system-data-models-and-knowledge-products-information-and-communication-technology
#9
Sander J C Janssen, Cheryl H Porter, Andrew D Moore, Ioannis N Athanasiadis, Ian Foster, James W Jones, John M Antle
Agricultural modeling has long suffered from fragmentation in model implementation. Many models are developed, there is much redundancy, models are often poorly coupled, model component re-use is rare, and it is frequently difficult to apply models to generate real solutions for the agricultural sector. To improve this situation, we argue that an open, self-sustained, and committed community is required to co-develop agricultural models and associated data and tools as a common resource. Such a community can benefit from recent developments in information and communications technology (ICT)...
July 2017: Agricultural Systems
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28701812/next-generation-data-systems-and-knowledge-products-to-support-agricultural-producers-and-science-based-policy-decision-making
#10
Susan M Capalbo, John M Antle, Clark Seavert
Research on next generation agricultural systems models shows that the most important current limitation is data, both for on-farm decision support and for research investment and policy decision making. One of the greatest data challenges is to obtain reliable data on farm management decision making, both for current conditions and under scenarios of changed bio-physical and socio-economic conditions. This paper presents a framework for the use of farm-level and landscape-scale models and data to provide analysis that could be used in NextGen knowledge products, such as mobile applications or personal computer data analysis and visualization software...
July 2017: Agricultural Systems
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28701811/next-generation-agricultural-system-data-models-and-knowledge-products-introduction
#11
John M Antle, James W Jones, Cynthia E Rosenzweig
Agricultural system models have become important tools to provide predictive and assessment capability to a growing array of decision-makers in the private and public sectors. Despite ongoing research and model improvements, many of the agricultural models today are direct descendants of research investments initially made 30-40 years ago, and many of the major advances in data, information and communication technology (ICT) of the past decade have not been fully exploited. The purpose of this Special Issue of Agricultural Systems is to lay the foundation for the next generation of agricultural systems data, models and knowledge products...
July 2017: Agricultural Systems
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28701810/next-generation-agricultural-system-models-and-knowledge-products-synthesis-and-strategy
#12
EDITORIAL
John M Antle, James W Jones, Cynthia Rosenzweig
The purpose of this Special Issue of Agricultural Systems is to lay the foundation for the next generation of agricultural systems data, models and knowledge products. In the Introduction to this Special Issue, we described a vision for accelerating the rate of agricultural innovation and meeting the growing global need for food and fiber. In this concluding article of the NextGen Special Issue we synthesize insights and formulate a strategy to advance data, models, and knowledge products that are consistent with this vision...
July 2017: Agricultural Systems
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28701809/yield-gap-analyses-to-estimate-attainable-bovine-milk-yields-and-evaluate-options-to-increase-production-in-ethiopia-and-india
#13
Dianne Mayberry, Andrew Ash, Di Prestwidge, Cécile M Godde, Ben Henderson, Alan Duncan, Michael Blummel, Y Ramana Reddy, Mario Herrero
Livestock provides an important source of income and nourishment for around one billion rural households worldwide. Demand for livestock food products is increasing, especially in developing countries, and there are opportunities to increase production to meet local demand and increase farm incomes. Estimating the scale of livestock yield gaps and better understanding factors limiting current production will help to define the technological and investment needs in each livestock sector. The aim of this paper is to quantify livestock yield gaps and evaluate opportunities to increase dairy production in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, using case studies from Ethiopia and India...
July 2017: Agricultural Systems
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28579671/losses-inefficiencies-and-waste-in-the-global-food-system
#14
Peter Alexander, Calum Brown, Almut Arneth, John Finnigan, Dominic Moran, Mark D A Rounsevell
Losses at every stage in the food system influence the extent to which nutritional requirements of a growing global population can be sustainably met. Inefficiencies and losses in agricultural production and consumer behaviour all play a role. This paper aims to understand better the magnitude of different losses and to provide insights into how these influence overall food system efficiency. We take a systems view from primary production of agricultural biomass through to human food requirements and consumption...
May 2017: Agricultural Systems
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28260829/mapping-of-beef-sheep-and-goat-food-systems-in-nairobi-a-framework-for-policy-making-and-the-identification-of-structural-vulnerabilities-and-deficiencies
#15
Pablo Alarcon, Eric M Fèvre, Maurice K Murungi, Patrick Muinde, James Akoko, Paula Dominguez-Salas, Stella Kiambi, Sohel Ahmed, Barbara Häsler, Jonathan Rushton
Nairobi is a large rapidly-growing city whose demand for beef, mutton and goat products is expected to double by 2030. The study aimed to map the Nairobi beef, sheep and goat systems structure and flows to identify deficiencies and vulnerabilities to shocks. Cross-sectional data were collected through focus group discussions and interviews with people operating in Nairobi ruminant livestock and meat markets and in the large processing companies. Qualitative and quantitative data were obtained about the type of people, animals, products and value adding activities in the chains, and their structural, spatial and temporal interactions...
March 2017: Agricultural Systems
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28163354/targeting-out-scaling-and-prioritising-climate-smart-interventions-in-agricultural-systems-lessons-from-applying-a-generic-framework-to-the-livestock-sector-in-sub-saharan-africa
#16
An Notenbaert, Catherine Pfeifer, Silvia Silvestri, Mario Herrero
As a result of population growth, urbanization and climate change, agricultural systems around the world face enormous pressure on the use of resources. There is a pressing need for wide-scale innovation leading to development that improves the livelihoods and food security of the world's population while at the same time addressing climate change adaptation and mitigation. A variety of promising climate-smart interventions have been identified. However, what remains is the prioritization of interventions for investment and broad dissemination...
February 2017: Agricultural Systems
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/28163353/can-we-be-certain-about-future-land-use-change-in-europe-a-multi-scenario-integrated-assessment-analysis
#17
I P Holman, C Brown, V Janes, D Sandars
The global land system is facing unprecedented pressures from growing human populations and climatic change. Understanding the effects these pressures may have is necessary to designing land management strategies that ensure food security, ecosystem service provision and successful climate mitigation and adaptation. However, the number of complex, interacting effects involved makes any complete understanding very difficult to achieve. Nevertheless, the recent development of integrated modelling frameworks allows for the exploration of the co-development of human and natural systems under scenarios of global change, potentially illuminating the main drivers and processes in future land system change...
February 2017: Agricultural Systems
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27594738/towards-better-metrics-and-policymaking-for-seed-system-development-insights-from-asia-s-seed-industry
#18
David J Spielman, Adam Kennedy
Since the 1980s, many developing countries have introduced policies to promote seed industry growth and improve the delivery of modern science to farmers, often with a long-term goal of increasing agricultural productivity in smallholder farming systems. Public, private, and civil society actors involved in shaping policy designs have, in turn, developed competing narratives around how best to build an innovative and sustainable seed system, each with varying goals, values, and levels of influence. Efforts to strike a balance between these narratives have often played out in passionate discourses surrounding seed rules and regulations...
September 2016: Agricultural Systems
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/27375318/analysing-reduced-tillage-practices-within-a-bio-economic-modelling-framework
#19
Toby J Townsend, Stephen J Ramsden, Paul Wilson
Sustainable intensification of agricultural production systems will require changes in farm practice. Within arable cropping systems, reducing the intensity of tillage practices (e.g. reduced tillage) potentially offers one such sustainable intensification approach. Previous researchers have tended to examine the impact of reduced tillage on specific factors such as yield or weed burden, whilst, by definition, sustainable intensification necessitates a system-based analysis approach. Drawing upon a bio-economic optimisation model, 'MEETA', we quantify trade-off implications between potential yield reductions, reduced cultivation costs and increased crop protection costs...
July 2016: Agricultural Systems
https://www.readbyqxmd.com/read/26941474/closing-system-wide-yield-gaps-to-increase-food-production-and-mitigate-ghgs-among-mixed-crop-livestock-smallholders-in-sub-saharan-africa
#20
B Henderson, C Godde, D Medina-Hidalgo, M van Wijk, S Silvestri, S Douxchamps, E Stephenson, B Power, C Rigolot, O Cacho, M Herrero
In this study we estimate yield gaps for mixed crop-livestock smallholder farmers in seven Sub-Saharan African sites covering six countries (Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Ethiopia, Senegal and Burkina Faso). We also assess their potential to increase food production and reduce the GHG emission intensity of their products, as a result of closing these yield gaps. We use stochastic frontier analysis to construct separate production frontiers for each site, based on 2012 survey data prepared by the International Livestock Research Institute for the Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security program...
March 2016: Agricultural Systems
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