Predicting the future: introducing business analytics to endoscopy units.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: currently, most endoscopy software only provide limited statistics of past procedures, while none allows extrapolating patterns. To overcome this need, the authors applied business analytic models to predict future demand and need for endoscopists in a tertiary hospital endoscopy unit.

METHODS: a query to the endoscopy database was done to retrieve demand from 2015 to 2021. The graphical inspection allowed inferring trend and seasonality, perceiving the impact of the COVID-19 pandemics, and selecting the best forecasting models. Considering COVID-19's impact in 2020's second quarter, data for esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) and colonoscopy was estimated using linear regression of historical data. The actual demand in the first 2 quarters of 2022 was used to validate the models.

RESULTS: during the study period 53886 procedures were requested. The best forecasting models were: i) simple seasonal exponential smoothing for EGD, colonoscopy, and percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy (PEG); ii) double exponential smoothing for capsule endoscopy and deep enteroscopy and iii) simple exponential smoothing for endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) and endoscopic ultrasound (EUS). The mean average percentage error ranged from 6.1% (EGD) to 33.5% (deep enteroscopy). Overall, 8788 procedures were predicted for 2022. The actual demand in the first 2 quarters of 2022 was within the predicted range. Considering the usual time allocation for each technique, 3.2 full-time equivalent endoscopists (40 hours-dedication to endoscopy) will be required to perform all procedures in 2022.

CONCLUSIONS: the incorporation of business analytics into the endoscopy software and clinical practice may enhance resource allocation, improving patient-focused decision-making and healthcare quality.