Predicting Success for Student Physical Therapists on the National Physical Therapy Examination: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: In physical therapist education, the National Physical Therapy Examination (NPTE) is the predominant measure of student success. Because the NPTE is a high-stakes examination, predicting NPTE performance is important for physical therapist students and programs.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to determine the relationships between first attempt NPTE performance, physical therapist applicant variables, and physical therapist student variables. The 4 identified physical therapist applicant variables were undergraduate cumulative grade point average (GPA), undergraduate GPA for prerequisite courses, Graduate Record Examination verbal and quantitative subscale scores, and admission scores. The 4 identified physical therapist student variables were first- and third-year physical therapist student GPA, clinical performance scores (first and final clinical experiences), noncognitive student variables, and comprehensive examination scores.

DATA SOURCES: A systematic search was performed using the databases PubMed and EBSCO (1966-2018).

STUDY SELECTION: Studies included in the review met the following criteria: the physical therapist education program offered an entry-level master's or doctorate degree, pertinent data were available for each independent variable, the relationship between the independent variable and the NPTE was investigated, the NPTE was a continuous variable, the program was a US entry-level therapist education program, and the study was peer reviewed.

DATA EXTRACTION: Two independent reviewers completed data extraction and quality appraisal using the McMaster Appraisal Tool.

DATA SYNTHESIS: Random-effects meta-analyses using the Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient as the measure of effect size was used.

LIMITATIONS: Limitations of the review included a lack of homogeneity, high NPTE pass rates, modifications to the McMaster Appraisal Tool, small sample sizes, and publication bias.

CONCLUSIONS: No one physical therapist applicant variable should be used as an independent predictor of first attempt NPTE performance. For physical therapist students, first- and third-year physical therapist student GPA had a strong relationship with first attempt NPTE performance; clinical performance had a weak and nonsignificant relationship with first attempt NPTE performance.