Modelling the number of quitters needed to achieve New Zealand's Smokefree 2025 goal for Māori and non-Māori.

AIM: To estimate the numbers of people required to quit smoking in New Zealand to achieve the Smokefree 2025 goal and to compare these with current levels of quitting.

METHODS: We used the established BODE3 tobacco forecasting model to project smoking prevalence separately for Māori and non-Māori to 2025 under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. We then determined by what factor current annual cessation rates would have to increase to achieve an adult smoking prevalence of under 5% by the year 2025, while annual smoking uptake rates continued to follow BAU patterns. Comparisons were also made in terms of estimated current long-term quitters arising from official reports of smoking cessation service use (Quitline and face-to-face support services).

RESULTS: To achieve a below 5% smoking prevalence by 2025, there would need to be additional averages of 8,400 Māori long-term quitters per year (5.2 times the BAU level on average) and 8,800 extra non-Māori quitters per year during 2018 to 2025 (1.9 times the BAU level on average). We estimated that the Quitline and funded face-to-face smoking cessation services are generating 2,000 Māori and 6,100 non-Māori long-term quitters per year. But this represents only 19% of Māori and only 34% of the non-Māori quitters required.

CONCLUSIONS: This modelling work suggests that to achieve the Smokefree 2025 goal, there would need to be very major increases in quit rates. To achieve this goal the New Zealand Government will need to massively increase investment in established interventions (smoking cessation support, mass media) while continuing with substantial tobacco tax increases, or else add substantive new strategies into the intervention mix.