Scoring System to Predict the Risk of Surgical Site Infection in Patients with Esophageal Cancer after Esophagectomy with Cervical Anastomosis.

BACKGROUND: Surgical site infection (SSI) surveillance has become increasingly important during the peri-operative period of esophagectomy with cervical anastomosis (McKeown esophagectomy). This study sought to clarify the risk factors for SSI and to develop a stratification scoring system to predict SSI after esophagectomy with cervical anastomosis.

PATIENTS AND METHODS: All patients who underwent elective esophagectomy with cervical anastomosis were studied between January 2010 and December 2016 in the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences Cancer Hospital (CAMS). Univariable analysis and multivariable logistic regression were used to screen the independent risk factors. A risk stratification scoring system was developed based on multivariable logistic regression parameters. The model derivation set involved 711 consecutive cases, and the validation set involved 168 consecutive cases.

RESULTS: In the model derivation set, there were 711 patients, of whom 146 were found to have SSI and the incidence rate was 20.53%. Multivariable analysis found that SSI was associated independently with the following adverse risk factors: peripheral vascular disease, prior chest surgery, no pre-operative surgical antibiotic prophylaxis (SAP) administration within 120 minutes prior to incision, low serum albumin, and low pre-albumin at post-operative day zero to three, respectively. Each of these factors contributed one point to the risk score and a risk stratification scoring system was established. The SSI rates were increased gradually in the low, intermediate, high, and extremely high-risk groups (p < 0.001). The area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve was 0.706 for the logistic regression model and 0.704 for the scoring system. In the validation set, the model performed equivalently (AUC = 0.824).

CONCLUSIONS: The validated stratification scoring system could predict accurately the risk of SSI after esophagectomy with cervical anastomosis. This could be helpful in the selection of high-risk patients requiring frequent monitoring and more aggressive interventions to decrease the incidence of SSI.