Comparative Effectiveness of Surgical Options for Patients with Ductal Carcinoma In Situ: An Instrumental Variable Approach.

CONTEXT: Many patients with ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) receive treatment that is too extensive.

OBJECTIVE: To take a holistic approach in comparing the effectiveness in cancer prevention between mastectomy and breast-conserving surgery (BCS) for patients with DCIS.

DESIGN: Female Kaiser Permanente Southern California members who underwent surgery for treatment of single primary DCIS from 2004 to 2014 were identified by the Kaiser Permanente Southern California cancer registry and HealthConnect database.

METHOD: Two-stage residual inclusion with the surgeon's preference of surgical procedure type as the instrumental variable was used to examine the effect of surgical choice on DCIS recurrence, breast cancer progression, and other cancer progression. Traditional Cox proportional hazards models were used for comparison.

RESULTS: Of qualified subjects, 72.2% underwent BCS and 27.8% underwent mastectomy. Patients were likelier to receive BCS if their surgeon preferred to perform BCS in the past 5 years (odds ratio = 1.02, 95% confidence interval = 1.02-1.03). Although traditional Cox proportional hazards models suggested an association between BCS and higher risk of DCIS recurrence, no significant effect was observed when we adjusted for endogeneity. Neither model showed significant differences between mastectomy and BCS in progression of any cancer.

CONCLUSION: No significant benefit was observed with a more aggressive surgical procedure in preventing DCIS recurrence or cancer progression in a diverse population. Many patients with DCIS could benefit from BCS with preservation of their body image. Breast conservation followed-up with cancer surveillance is a rational approach to ensure affordable, effective care for patients with DCIS.