Breast and cervical cancer incidence and mortality trends in Russia 1980-2013.

BACKGROUND: Breast and cervical cancer are among the leading causes of preventable cancer deaths in women in Russia. The aim of this study is to analyze changes in breast and cervical cancer incidence and mortality trends using data from the Russian State Cancer Registry.

METHODS: The age-standardized rates of cervical cancer incidence (1993-2013) and mortality (1980-2013) were analyzed using piecewise linear regression. Age-period-cohort models were used to estimate the temporal effects and provide future predictions.

RESULTS: Breast and cervical cancer incidence rates uniformly increased over two decades from 33.0 to 47.0 per 100,000 and from 10.6 to 14.2 per 100,000, respectively. Breast cancer mortality rates however declined from 17.6 to 15.7 in 2013, while cervical cancer mortality increased steadily from 5.6 to 6.7. Breakpoints in the risk occurred in cohorts born 1937-1953, indicating a recent generational decrease in breast cancer mortality, but a concomitant increase in cervical cancer. Cervical cancer has already surpassed breast cancer in terms of years of life lost (YLL) (23.4 per death vs 18.5 in 2009-2013), while future projections suggest that the annual YLL could reach 1.2 million for cervical cancer and (decline to) 1.8 million for breast cancer by the year 2030.

CONCLUSION: The temporal patterns of breast cancer incidence and mortality in Russia are in line with other countries in Europe, although cervical cancer rates and the risk of occurrence in recent generations is rapidly increasing; these trends underscore the need to place immediate priority in national cervical vaccination and screening programs.