Longitudinal associations of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol or low-density lipoprotein cholesterol with metabolic syndrome in the Chinese population: a prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: Currently, most studies only reveal the relationship between baseline high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-c) or low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-c) levels and metabolic syndrome (MetS). The relationship between dynamic changes in HDL-c or LDL-c and MetS remains unclear. We aimed to gain a deeper understanding of the relationship between the dynamic changes in HDL-c or LDL-c and MetS.

DESIGN: A prospective study.

SETTING: The Medical Centre of the Second Hospital affiliated with Dalian Medical University from 2010 to 2016.

PARTICIPANTS: A total of 4542 individuals who were initially MetS-free and completed at least two follow-up examinations as part of the longitudinal population were included.

METHODS: The Joint Interim Statement criteria 2009 were used to define MetS. We used the Joint model to estimate the relative risks (RRs) of incident MetS.

RESULTS: The cumulative incidence of MetS was 17.81% and was 14.86% in men and 5.36% in women during the 7 years of follow-up. In the Joint models, the RRs of the longitudinal decrease in HDL-c and the longitudinal increase in LDL-c for the development of MetS were 18.8781-fold (95% CI 12.5156 to 28.4900) and 1.3929-fold (95% CI 1.2283 to 1.5795), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS: The results highlight that the dynamic longitudinal decrement of HDL-c or the increment of LDL-c is associated with an elevated risk of MetS.