Changes in the range of the medicinal herb Eriocaulon buergerianum Körnicke. (Eriocaulaceae) under climate change.

Eriocaulon buergerianum Körnicke. (Eriocaulaceae) is one of the most common and least expensive herbal medicines for eye disease. This species is facing potential threats from climate change. Insufficient biogeographic knowledge of this plant species can hinder its effective management for long-term population survival. We integrated ecological niche modelling (Biomod2) with 70 records of E. buergerianum and eight environmental variables to estimate changes in distribution over time. A core area Zonation algorithm was introduced to identify conservation priority areas. Our results indicate that the range of E. buergerianum will likely decrease in the future: the overall range change on average is -44.36 ± 21.56% (-3.70% to -77.73%); values of range loss and range gain are 45.79 ± 20.30% (9.29-78.19%) and 1.43 ± 1.53% (0.18-5.59%), respectively. According to conservation priority analysis, the mandatory reserve (top 5%), negotiable reserve (0.95-0.9) and partial reserve (0.9-0.8) areas are 19,799, 19,799 and 39,597 km2 , respectively. The areas identified as conservation priority are located in the southeast, especially in northern Taiwan and the Wuyi Mountains. Based on these results, we suggest a re-evaluation of the threatened status of this species, with a potential upgrade to the vulnerable (VU) category. To overcome the adverse conditions faced by populations of E. buergerianum in China, we propose a multi-faceted conservation strategy involving more complete resource assessment, a monitoring system, medical research focused on revealing medicinal components or substitutes, and a regional development plan that considers both wildlife and socio-economic issues.