Different Places, Different Stories: A Study of Spatial Heterogeneity of County-Level Fertility in China.

Background: China has been characterized by persistently low fertility rates since the 1990s. Existing literature has examined the relationships of fertility levels with social, economic, and policy-related determinants. However, the possible spatial variations in these relationships have not been investigated.

Objective: The purpose of this study is to examine the potential spatially varying relationships between county-level fertility rates and policy and socioeconomic factors in China.

Methods: Using geocoded 2010 county-level census data, this study adopts the geographically weighted regression (GWR) method to identify place-specific relationships between county-level total fertility rate (TFR) and socioeconomics and policy-related factors.

Conclusions: We find relationships between TFR and widely used social, economic, and policy-related factors ( rural Hukou, ethnic minority, female education, net migration rate, poor living standard, sex ratio at birth, and fertility policy compliance ratio ) vary spatially in terms of the direction, strength, and magnitude. The spatial variation is largely due to the difference in local characteristics. The differences and the complexities of localities cannot be told by a single story of either government intervention or socioeconomic development.

Contribution: This study extends the existing fertility research in China by explicitly recognizing the spatial heterogeneity in the impacts of policy and socioeconomic factors on the local fertility rate. This study sets the stage for future research that will contextually analyze varying fertility rates at the sub-national level in China and other countries.