Scoring system to predict early carotid restenosis after eversion endarterectomy by analysis of inflammatory markers.

BACKGROUND: Inflammation is one of the mechanisms that leads to carotid restenosis (CR). The aim of this study was to examine the influence of increased values of inflammation markers (high-sensitivity C-reactive protein [hs-CRP], C3 complement, and fibrinogen) on CR development after eversion carotid endarterectomy (CEA).

METHODS: A consecutive 300 patients were included in the study, in which eversion CEA was performed between March 1 and August 1, 2010. Demographic data, atherosclerosis risk factors, comorbidities, and ultrasound plaque characteristics were listed in relation to potential risk factors for CR. Serum concentrations of hs-CRP, fibrinogen, and C3 complement were taken just before surgery (6 hours); 48 hours after CEA; and during regular checkups at 1 month, 6 months, 1 year, and 2 years. An "inflammatory score" was also created, which consisted of six predictive values of inflammatory markers (hs-CRP just before and just after CEA, fibrinogen just before and just after CEA, and C3 complement just before and just after CEA) with a maximum score of 6 and a minimum score of 0. At every follow-up visit to the outpatient clinic, ultrasound assessment of the carotid artery for restenosis was done.

RESULTS: Our results showed an increased risk of early CR within 1 year in patients with increased hs-CRP before CEA (6 hours) and increased fibrinogen 48 hours after surgery and in patients not taking aspirin after CEA. Sex was determined to be an independent predictor of CR, with female patients having a higher risk (P = .002). Male patients taking aspirin with an inflammatory score >2 had an increased risk for restenosis compared with male patients with inflammatory score <2. Not taking aspirin after CEA and fibrinogen (48 hours) were the strongest predictors, and the Fisher equation incorporating these predictors was used to predict CR. A computer program was created to calculate whether the patient was at high or low risk for CR by selecting whether the patient was taking aspirin (yes or no) and whether fibrinogen was increased 48 hours after CEA (yes or no) and to display the recommended therapeutic algorithm consisting of aspirin, clopidogrel, cilostazol, and statins.

CONCLUSIONS: Increased hs-CRP before CEA, increased fibrinogen 48 hours after CEA, and not taking aspirin were the main predictors of early CR. With the clinical implementation of the Fisher equation, it is possible to identify patients at high risk for early CR and to apply an aggressive therapeutic algorithm, finally leading to a decreased CR rate.