Costs, Substitution, and Material Use: The Case of Rare Earth Magnets.

Environmental technologies depend on raw materials, some of which are subject to volatile costs and availability concerns. One way to address these concerns is through substitution, of which there are many types. An important form of substitution in the short term is adopting an alternative production process, yielding a material with the same functional properties with less material input. In effect, technology substitutes for material. This study elucidates the role increased and uncertain material costs play in inducing different substitution types in the short to medium term. Specifically, this paper uses an expert survey to determine the relative importance of eight specific industry responses taken by magnet and wind turbine manufacturers in response to the 2010/2011 rare-earth price spike through 2016. Statistical tests show adopting an existing production process for magnets was the most important response, followed by cost passthrough, using an alternate magnet grade in a redesigned generator system, and using alternate systems altogether. The paper also provides specific findings for the magnet and wind turbine industries with respect to each substitution type.