Modelling the growth of Listeria monocytogenes in Mediterranean fish species from aquaculture production.

Over the last couple of decades, several studies have evaluated growth dynamics of L. monocytogenes in lightly processed and ready-to-eat (RTE) fishery products mostly consumed in Nordic European countries. Other fish species from aquaculture production are of special interest since their relevant consumption patterns and added value in Mediterranean countries, such as sea bream and sea bass. In the present study, the growth of L. monocytogenes was evaluated in fish-based juice (FBJ) by means of optical density (OD) measurements in a temperature range 2-20 °C under different atmosphere conditions (i.e. reduced oxygen and aerobic). The Baranyi and Roberts model was used to estimate the maximum growth rate (μmax ) from the observed growth curves. The effect of storage temperature on μmax was modelled using the Ratkowsky square root model. The developed models were validated using experimental growth data for L. monocytogenes in sea bream and sea bass fillets stored under static and dynamic temperature conditions. Overall, models developed in FBJ provided fail-safe predictions for L. monocytogenes growth. For the model generated under reduced oxygen conditions, bias and accuracy factor for growth rate predictions were 1.15 and 1.25, respectively, showing good performance to adequately predict L. monocytogenes growth in Mediterranean fish products. The present study provides validated predictive models for L. monocytogenes growth in Mediterranean fish species to be used in microbial risk assessment and shelf-life studies.