FDG-PET and CSF biomarker accuracy in prediction of conversion to different dementias in a large multicentre MCI cohort.

Background/aims: In this multicentre study in clinical settings, we assessed the accuracy of optimized procedures for FDG-PET brain metabolism and CSF classifications in predicting or excluding the conversion to Alzheimer's disease (AD) dementia and non-AD dementias.

Methods: We included 80 MCI subjects with neurological and neuropsychological assessments, FDG-PET scan and CSF measures at entry, all with clinical follow-up. FDG-PET data were analysed with a validated voxel-based SPM method. Resulting single-subject SPM maps were classified by five imaging experts according to the disease-specific patterns, as "typical-AD", "atypical-AD" (i.e. posterior cortical atrophy, asymmetric logopenic AD variant, frontal-AD variant), "non-AD" (i.e. behavioural variant FTD, corticobasal degeneration, semantic variant FTD; dementia with Lewy bodies) or "negative" patterns. To perform the statistical analyses, the individual patterns were grouped either as "AD dementia vs. non-AD dementia (all diseases)" or as "FTD vs. non-FTD (all diseases)". Aβ42, total and phosphorylated Tau CSF-levels were classified dichotomously, and using the Erlangen Score algorithm. Multivariate logistic models tested the prognostic accuracy of FDG-PET-SPM and CSF dichotomous classifications. Accuracy of Erlangen score and Erlangen Score aided by FDG-PET SPM classification was evaluated.

Results: The multivariate logistic model identified FDG-PET "AD" SPM classification (Expβ = 19.35, 95% C.I. 4.8-77.8, p < 0.001) and CSF Aβ42 (Expβ = 6.5, 95% C.I. 1.64-25.43, p < 0.05) as the best predictors of conversion from MCI to AD dementia. The "FTD" SPM pattern significantly predicted conversion to FTD dementias at follow-up (Expβ = 14, 95% C.I. 3.1-63, p < 0.001). Overall, FDG-PET-SPM classification was the most accurate biomarker, able to correctly differentiate either the MCI subjects who converted to AD or FTD dementias, and those who remained stable or reverted to normal cognition (Expβ = 17.9, 95% C.I. 4.55-70.46, p < 0.001).

Conclusions: Our results support the relevant role of FDG-PET-SPM classification in predicting progression to different dementia conditions in prodromal MCI phase, and in the exclusion of progression, outperforming CSF biomarkers.