Deterrence's Element of Sanction Certainty: Friendships, Vicarious Experiences, and Underage Alcohol Use.

BACKGROUND: Underage drinking remains a pressing issue on college campuses across the United States. Though the most common form of addressing underage alcohol use on campuses is through deterrence-based policies, evidence suggests deterrence-based methods are ineffective and may produce negative outcomes.

OBJECTIVES: Using dyadic data, the objective of this study is to use a friendship-informed perspective on deterrence theory to examine how an individual's and his/her friend's perceptions of sanction certainty relate to self-reported underage alcohol use.

RESULTS: Using multilevel mixed models which fall under the actor-partner interdependence modeling class, results demonstrate that respondents who perceive high levels of sanction certainty drink and heavily use alcohol more frequently than those who perceive low levels of sanction certainty. Additionally, those who have friends who perceive high levels of sanction certainty tend to drink at young ages significantly more frequently and in more dangerous patterns than those who have friends who perceive a low sanction certainty. The dyad members' levels of sanction certainty do not interact in relation to alcohol use.

CONCLUSIONS: The significant relationships of the friends' sanction certainty support the notion of friendship-based deterrence. However, the consistent positive direction of all sanction certainty measures is the opposite of what deterrence theory hypothesizes. As such, it appears that deterrence is not only ineffective at stopping underage alcohol use on college campuses, but may be harmful due to increased rates of both drinking and high-risk drinking.