Evaluation of clinical and radiographic indices as predictors of osteoporotic fractures: a 10-year longitudinal study.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of the study was to evaluate 2 radiographic and 3 clinical indices as predictors of future osteoporotic fractures.

STUDY DESIGN: In a prospective, longitudinal study with a 10-year fracture follow-up, the 2 radiographic indices mandibular cortical erosion (normal, mild/moderate erosion, and severe erosion of the inferior cortex) and cortex thickness were assessed using panoramic radiographs of 411 women, age 62 to 78 years. The clinical indices were the fracture assessment tool FRAX, the osteoporosis index of risk (OSIRIS), and the osteoporosis self-assessment tool (OST).

RESULTS: The relative risks (RRs) for future fracture were significant for FRAX greater than 15%, 4.1 (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.4-7.2), and for severely eroded cortices, 1.7 (95% CI 1.1-2.8). Cortical thickness less than 3 mm, OSIRIS, and OST were not significant fracture predictors (RR 1.1, 1.4, and 1.5, respectively). For the 5 tested fracture predictors, Fisher's exact test gave the following P values for differences between fracture and nonfracture groups: FRAX <.001, cortical erosion 0.023, OST 0.078, OSIRIS 0.206, and cortical thickness 0.678. The area under the curve was 0.69 for FRAX less than 15%, 0.58 for cortical erosion, and 0.52 for cortical thickness. Adding OSIRIS and OST did not change the area under the curve significantly.

CONCLUSIONS: FRAX and severely eroded cortices predicted fracture but cortical thickness, OSIRIS, and OST did not.