Evaluation of constraints to water quality improvements in the Western Lake Erie Basin.

Severe environmental and health impacts have been experienced in the Western Lake Erie Basin (WLEB) because of eutrophication and associated proliferation of harmful algae blooms. Efforts to improve water quality within the WLEB have been on-going for several decades. However, water quality improvements in the basin have not been realized as anticipated. In this study, factors affecting water quality within the WLEB were evaluated with a view to differentiating their impacts and informing further assessments in the basin. Over the long-term (1966-2015) and basin-wide, total annual precipitation increased significantly by about 2.4 mm/year while mean monthly streamflows also increased during the same period although the increase was not significant (p = 0.36). There was, however, a significant increase in spring streamflows during this period (p = 0.003). Patterns in water quality parameters showed significant reductions in total suspended solids (TSS) (p < 0.001) and total phosphorus (TP) (p = 0.018) while soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) increased significantly (p < 0.001), and in particular from about 1995. Results of near-term (2005-2015) analysis showed a non-significant (p = 0.262) reduction in TSS concentrations of about 0.25 mg/L/year. TP concentrations did not vary substantially during the same period while a 0.11 mg/L/year increase in nitrate and a 0.001 mg/L/year increase in SRP were observed, with increases in nitrates being significant (p = 0.013). TP and SRP concentrations, however, remained high within the basin with daily values ranging between 0.03 and 1.84 mg/L and less than 0.002-0.52 mg/L, respectively. Basin-wide, both spring precipitation and spring streamflows increased significantly during the period 2005-2015 (p < 0.001). Overall, no substantial changes in land use were observed, suggesting that water quality responses might be attributable to management. Based on recent data, corn acreage in the basin and fertilizer applied to corn increased by 33% and 10% respectively. Combined Sewer Overflows (CSOs) and impoundments were also important factors due to their prevalence in the basin. Based on the analysis, changes in agricultural management, increase in spring precipitation, CSOs, legacy phosphorus, and the presence of dams were thought to present constraints to water quality improvements despite conservation efforts within the basin.