Occurrence of depressive tendency and associated social factors among elderly persons forced by the Great East Japan Earthquake and nuclear disaster to live as long-term evacuees: a prospective cohort study.

PURPOSE: This study examined the incidence of depression and associated factors among elderly persons from Iitate village after the March 2011 earthquake.

METHOD: This was a prospective cohort study. As a baseline survey, in May 2010 a self-assessment Basic Checklist (BCL) was distributed to 1611 elderly villagers, of which 1277 responded. Of these respondents, 885 without a tendency to depression (69.3%) were given a follow-up survey in May 2013. The BCL was used to assess depression tendency, instrumental activities of daily living (IADL), physical function, nutritional status, oral function, homeboundness, cognitive function and social activities. Univariate analysis was used to examine differences in risk between those with a presence of depression tendency (PDT) and those without (non-PDT) depending on demographic and BCL variables. Variables found to be significant were analysed by Poisson regression analysis.

RESULTS: Of the 438 respondents in the second survey, 163 (37.2%) showed depression tendency. PDT risk was significantly increased by female gender, age, history of diabetes and cognitive disorder. It was significantly reduced by increased IADL. Engagement in social activities decreased PDT risk in rental accommodation.

DISCUSSION: Renters faced a higher risk of PDT than persons evacuated in groups to purpose-built housing. The inclusion of social activities in the multivariate Poisson regression analysis weakened this effect. Female gender, a history of diabetes, reduced IADL and a tendency to cognitive disorder each independently affected PDT risk. These findings may inform future responses to earthquakes and the technical disasters that may accompany them.