Derivation and validation of the prediabetes self-assessment screening score after acute pancreatitis (PERSEUS).

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Approximately 40% of patients develop abnormal glucose metabolism after a single episode of acute pancreatitis. This study aimed to develop and validate a prediabetes self-assessment screening score for patients after acute pancreatitis.

METHODS: Data from non-overlapping training (n=82) and validation (n=80) cohorts were analysed. Univariate logistic and linear regression identified variables associated with prediabetes after acute pancreatitis. Multivariate logistic regression developed the score, ranging from 0 to 215. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC), Hosmer-Lemeshow χ2 statistic, and calibration plots were used to assess model discrimination and calibration. The developed score was validated using data from the validation cohort.

RESULTS: The score had an AUROC of 0.88 (95% CI, 0.80-0.97) and Hosmer-Lemeshow χ2 statistic of 5.75 (p=0.676). Patients with a score of ≥75 had a 94.1% probability of having prediabetes, and were 29 times more likely to have prediabetes than those with a score of <75. The AUROC in the validation cohort was 0.81 (95% CI, 0.70-0.92) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow χ2 statistic was 5.50 (p=0.599). Model calibration of the score showed good calibration in both cohorts.

CONCLUSION: The developed and validated score, called PERSEUS, is the first instrument to identify individuals who are at high risk of developing abnormal glucose metabolism following an episode of acute pancreatitis.