Post-discharge kidney function is associated with subsequent ten-year renal progression risk among survivors of acute kidney injury.

The extent to which renal progression after acute kidney injury (AKI) arises from an initial step drop in kidney function (incomplete recovery), or from a long-term trajectory of subsequent decline, is unclear. This makes it challenging to plan or time post-discharge follow-up. This study of 14651 hospital survivors in 2003 (1966 with AKI, 12685 no AKI) separates incomplete recovery from subsequent renal decline by using the post-discharge estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) rather than the pre-admission as a new reference point for determining subsequent renal outcomes. Outcomes were sustained 30% renal decline and de novo CKD stage 4, followed from 2003-2013. Death was a competing risk. Overall, death was more common than subsequent renal decline (37.5% vs 11.3%) and CKD stage 4 (4.5%). Overall, 25.7% of AKI patients had non-recovery. Subsequent renal decline was greater after AKI (vs no AKI) (14.8% vs 10.8%). Renal decline after AKI (vs no AKI) was greatest among those with higher post-discharge eGFRs with multivariable hazard ratios of 2.29 (1.88-2.78); 1.50 (1.13-2.00); 0.94 (0.68-1.32) and 0.95 (0.64-1.41) at eGFRs of 60 or more; 45-59; 30-44 and under 30, respectively. The excess risk after AKI persisted over ten years of study, irrespective of AKI severity, or post-episode proteinuria. Thus, even if post-discharge kidney function returns to normal, hospital admission with AKI is associated with increased renal progression that persists for up to ten years. Follow-up plans should avoid false reassurance when eGFR after AKI returns to normal.