A two-pool kinetic model predicts phosphate concentrations during and shortly following a conventional (three times weekly) hemodialysis session.

Background: Previous studies have suggested that a conventional two-pool model cannot be used to predict intradialysis and early postdialysis phosphorus concentrations.

Methods: A conventional two-pool urea model was modified by increasing the distal compartment volume from two-thirds to three times the total body water and by the use of a dynamically variable intercompartmental phosphorus clearance during dialysis. The phosphate solver model parameters were derived from an examination of the results in the literature, and fine-tuned using a training set (F4) of 415 Hemodialysis (HEMO) Study patients studied during a dialysis session where phosphorus was measured at 4 months of follow-up. Validation was done in a group of 380 different HEMO Study patients plus 9 from the original F4 group, who were evaluated at 36 months of follow-up.

Results: The model predicted measured median early (1 h) intradialysis, end-dialysis and 30-min postdialysis serum phosphorus levels in the test and validation datasets with little apparent bias, including the highest and lowest deciles of predialysis serum phosphorus. The model tended to underestimate slightly intradialysis serum phosphorus when predialysis serum phosphorus was <3.0 mg/dL (0.97 mmol/L). There was a large scatter and standard deviation among patients, and whether aberrant values represent a patient-specific phenomenon is unclear.

Conclusions: A modified two-pool model using a slightly expanded distal compartment and a dynamically varying intercompartmental clearance, depending on the intradialysis phosphorus concentration, can be used to predict serum phosphorus level during and shortly after dialysis, in patients following a conventional three times per week dialysis prescription.