An individual-based modelling approach to estimate landscape connectivity for bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis).

Background. Preserving connectivity, or the ability of a landscape to support species movement, is among the most commonly recommended strategies to reduce the negative effects of climate change and human land use development on species. Connectivity analyses have traditionally used a corridor-based approach and rely heavily on least cost path modeling and circuit theory to delineate corridors. Individual-based models are gaining popularity as a potentially more ecologically realistic method of estimating landscape connectivity. However, this remains a relatively unexplored approach. We sought to explore the utility of a simple, individual-based model as a land-use management support tool in identifying and implementing landscape connectivity. Methods. We created an individual-based model of bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) that simulates a bighorn sheep traversing a landscape by following simple movement rules. The model was calibrated for bighorn sheep in the Okanagan Valley, British Columbia, Canada, a region containing isolated herds that are vital to conservation of the species in its northern range. Simulations were run to determine baseline connectivity between subpopulations in the study area. We then applied the model to explore two land management scenarios on simulated connectivity: restoring natural fire regimes and identifying appropriate sites for interventions that would increase road permeability for bighorn sheep. Results. This model suggests there are no continuous areas of good habitat between current subpopulations of sheep in the study area; however, a series of stepping-stones or circuitous routes could facilitate movement between subpopulations and into currently unoccupied, yet suitable, bighorn habitat. Restoring natural fire regimes or mimicking fire with prescribed burns and tree removal could considerably increase bighorn connectivity in this area. Moreover, several key road crossing sites that could benefit from wildlife overpasses were identified. Discussion. By linking individual-scale movement rules to landscape-scale outcomes, our individual-based model of bighorn sheep allows for the exploration of how on-the-ground management or conservation scenarios may increase functional connectivity for the species in the study area. More generally, this study highlights the usefulness of individual-based models to identify how a species makes broad use of a landscape for movement. Application of this approach can provide effective quantitative support for decision makers seeking to incorporate wildlife conservation and connectivity into land use planning.