Implementation and Operational Research: Risk Factors of Loss to Follow-up Among HIV-Positive Pediatric Patients in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.

OBJECTIVE: To identify risk factors for loss to follow-up (LTFU) in an HIV-infected pediatric population in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, between 2004 and 2011.

DESIGN: Longitudinal analysis of 6236 HIV-infected children.

METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study of 6236 pediatric patients enrolled in care and treatment in Dar es Salaam from October 2004 to September 2011. LTFU was defined as missing a clinic visit for >90 days for patients on ART and for >180 days for patients in care and monitoring. The relationship of baseline and time-varying characteristics to the risk of LTFU was examined using a Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS: A total of 2130 children (34%) were LTFU over a median follow-up of 16.7 months (interquartile range, 3.4-36.9). Factors independently associated with a higher risk of LTFU were age ≤2 years (relative risk [RR] = 1.59, 95% CI: 1.40 to 1.80), diarrhea at enrollment (RR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.03 to 1.41), a low mid-upper arm circumference for age (RR = 1.20, CI: 1.05 to 1.37), eating protein-rich foods ≤3 times a week (RR = 1.39, 95% CI: 1.05 to 1.90), taking cotrimoxazole (RR = 1.39, 95% CI: 1.06 to 1.81), initiating onto antiretrovirals (RR = 1.37, 95% CI: 1.17 to 1.61), receiving treatment at a hospital instead of a local facility (RR = 1.39, 95% CI: 1.06 to 1.41), and starting treatment in 2006 or later (RR = 1.10, 95% CI: 1.04 to 1.16).

CONCLUSIONS: Health workers should be aware of pediatric patients who are at a greatest risk of LTFU, such as younger and undernourished patients, so that they can proactively counsel families about the importance of visit adherence. Findings support decentralization of HIV care to local facilities as opposed to hospitals.