Risk assessment of deep-vein thrombosis after acute stroke: a prospective study using clinical factors.

AIMS: Deep-vein thrombosis (DVT) represents a serious complication in acute stroke patients with pulmonary embolus (PE) as a potential outcome. Prediction of DVT may help with formulating a proper prevention strategy. To assess of the risk of deep venous thrombosis (DVT) in acute stroke patients, we developed and validated a clinical score in a cohort study.

METHODS: Incidence of Deep Venous Thrombosis after Acute Stroke in China (INVENT-China) is a multicenter prospective cohort study. The potential predictive variables for DVT at baseline were collected, and the presence of DVT was evaluated using ultrasonography on the 14 ± 3 days. Data were randomly assigned to either a training data set or a test data set. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to develop risk scores to predict DVT in the training data set and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve to validate the score in the test data set.

RESULTS: From 2006-2007, 862 hospital-based acute stroke patients were enrolled in China. The overall incidence of DVT after acute stroke within two weeks was 12.4% (95%CI 10.3-14.7%). A seven-point score derived in the training data set (age [≥65 years = 1], sex [female gender = 1]), obesity [BMI ≥ 25 kg/m(2) = 1], active cancer [yes = 2], stroke subtype [cerebral hemorraghe = 1], muscle weakness [≥2 on Lower limb NIHSS score = 1] was highly predictive of 14-day risk of DVT(c statistic = 0.70, 95% CI, 0.64-0.76, P < 0.001), in the overall study population(c statistic = 0.65, 95% CI 0.59-0.70, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS: This clinical score may help identify acute stroke patients with high risk of DVT. In addition, it also serves as a platform to develop further models of DVT prediction in stroke patients based on clinical factors.