Infectious diseases modeling

Previous studies on temperature and infectious diseases primarily focused on individual disease types, yielding inconsistent conclusions. This study collected monthly data on notifiable infectious disease cases and meteorological variables across 7 provinces in China from 2011 to 2019. A distributed lag nonlinear model was used to evaluate the association between ambient temperature and infectious diseases within each province, and random meta-analysis was applied to evaluate the pooled effect. Extreme hot temperature (the 97...

Antimicrobial peptides (AMPs) are presented as potential scaffolds for antibiotic development due to their desirable qualities including broad-spectrum activity, rapid action, and general lack of susceptibility to current resistance mechanisms. However, they often lose antibacterial activity under physiological conditions and/or display mammalian cell toxicity, which limits their potential use. Identification of AMPs that overcome these barriers will help develop rules for how this antibacterial class can be developed to treat infection...

BACKGROUND: Contact plays a critical role in infectious disease transmission. Characterizing heterogeneity in contact patterns across individuals, time, and space is necessary to inform accurate estimates of transmission risk, particularly to explain superspreading, predict age differences in vulnerability, and inform social distancing policies. Current respiratory disease models often rely on data from the 2008 POLYMOD study conducted in Europe, which is now outdated and potentially unrepresentative of behavior in the US...

BACKGROUND: Early prediction of mortality in individuals with HIV (PWH) has perpetually posed a formidable challenge. With the widespread integration of machine learning into clinical practice, some researchers endeavor to formulate models predicting the mortality risk for PWH. Nevertheless, the diverse timeframes of mortality among PWH and the potential multitude of modeling variables have cast doubt on the efficacy of the current predictive model for HIV-related deaths. To address this, we undertook a systematic review and meta-analysis, aiming to comprehensively assess the utilization of machine learning in the early prediction of HIV-related deaths and furnish evidence-based support for the advancement of artificial intelligence in this domain...

Infectious diseases have long been a shaping force in human history, necessitating a comprehensive understanding of their dynamics. This study introduces a co-evolution model that integrates both epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics. Utilizing a system of differential equations, the model represents the interactions among susceptible, infected, and recovered populations for both ancestral and evolved viral strains. Methodologically rigorous, the model's existence and uniqueness have been verified, and it accommodates both deterministic and stochastic cases...

Tools to evaluate and accelerate tuberculosis (TB) vaccine development are needed to advance global TB control strategies. Validated human infection studies for TB have the potential to facilitate breakthroughs in understanding disease pathogenesis, identify correlates of protection, develop diagnostic tools, and accelerate and de-risk vaccine and drug development. However, key challenges remain for realizing the clinical utility of these models, which require further discussion and alignment amongst key stakeholders...

In this paper, we introduce the notion of practically susceptible population, which is a fraction of the biologically susceptible population. Assuming that the fraction depends on the severity of the epidemic and the public's level of precaution (as a response of the public to the epidemic), we propose a general framework model with the response level evolving with the epidemic. We firstly verify the well-posedness and confirm the disease's eventual vanishing for the framework model under the assumption that the basic reproduction number <mml:math xmlns:mml="https://www...

Pneumocystis pneumonia is a serious lung infection caused by an original ubiquitous fungus with opportunistic behavior, referred to as Pneumocystis jirovecii. P. jirovecii is the second most common fungal agent among invasive fungal infections after Candida spp. Unfortunately, there is still an inability to culture P. jirovecii in vitro, and so a great impairment to improve knowledge on the pathogenesis of Pneumocystis pneumonia. In this context, animal models have a high value to address complex interplay between Pneumocystis and the components of the host immune system...

INTRODUCTION: with imported malaria cases in a given population, the question arises as to what extent the local cases are a consequence of the imports or not. We perform a modeling analysis for a specific area, in a region aspiring for malaria-free status. METHODS: data on malaria cases over ten years is subjected to a compartmental model which is assumed to be operating close to the equilibrium state. Two of the parameters of the model are fitted to the decadal data...

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) poses a significant global health threat, especially affecting infants and the elderly. Addressing this, the present study proposes an innovative approach to vaccine design, utilizing immunoinformatics and computational strategies. We analyzed RSV's structural proteins across both subtypes A and B, identifying potential helper T lymphocyte, cytotoxic T lymphocyte, and linear B lymphocyte epitopes. Criteria such as antigenicity, allergenicity, toxicity, and cytokine-inducing potential were rigorously examined...

One Health recognizes the health of humans, agriculture, wildlife, and the environment are interrelated. The concept has been embraced by international health and environmental authorities such as WHO, WOAH, FAO, and UNEP, but One Health approaches have been more practiced by researchers than national or international authorities. To identify priorities for operationalizing One Health beyond research contexts, we conducted 41 semi-structured interviews with professionals across One Health sectors (public health, environment, agriculture, wildlife) and institutional contexts, who focus on national-scale and international applications...

BACKGROUND: Acute meningitis is a disease with case fatality and disability rate that is dependent on the causative agent. OBJECTIVE: Determine the meningitis trend in Iraq from 2007 to 2023 using a joinpoint regression at national and sub-national levels and describe the epidemiology. METHODS: Joinpoint regression model was used on surveillance data from Jan 2007 until May 2023, to calculate annual and average annual percent changes to determine the trend...

BACKGROUND: Determining the presence of necrotizing soft tissue infection (NSTI) poses a significant hurdle. As of late, there has been a notable increase in the application of artificial intelligence (AI) machine learning techniques in identifying diseases, a shift that can be attributed to their exceptional efficiency, unbiased nature, and high precision. METHODS: Information was gathered from a cohort of 13 patients suffering from NSTI, alongside 12 patients with cellulitis...

Global prevalence of hypertension is on the rise, burdening healthcare, especially in developing countries where infectious diseases, such as malaria, are also rampant. Whether hypertension could predispose or increase susceptibility to malaria, however, has not been extensively explored. Previously, we reported that hypertension is associated with abnormal red blood cell (RBC) physiology and anemia. Since RBC are target host cells for malarial parasite, Plasmodium , we hypothesized that hypertensive patients with abnormal RBC physiology are at greater risk or susceptibility to Plasmodium infection...

INTRODUCTION: A better understanding of how to promote disease mitigation and prevention behaviors among vulnerable populations, such as cancer survivors, is needed. This study aimed to determine patterns of and factors associated with COVID-19-related preventive behaviors among cancer survivors and assess whether the COVID-19 preventive behaviors of cancer survivors differ from the general population. METHODS: In June 2020, an online survey of adults (N = 897) assessed predictors of COVID-19-related preventive behaviors, including socio-demographics, COVID-19 beliefs and perceptions (Health Belief Model [HBM] variables), and cancer statuses (cancer survivors currently in treatment, cancer survivors not currently in treatment, and individuals with no history of cancer)...

Alzheimer's disease is classified as a progressive disorder resulting from protein misfolding, also known as proteinopathies. Proteinopathies include synucleinopathies triggered by misfolded amyloid α-synuclein, tauopathies triggered by misfolded tau, and amyloidopathies triggered by misfolded amyloid of which Alzheimer's disease (β-amyloid) is most prevalent. Most neurodegenerative diseases (>90%) are not due to dominantly inherited genetic causes. Instead, it is thought that the risk for disease is a complicated interaction between inherited and environmental risk factors that, with age, drive pathology that ultimately results in neurodegeneration and disease onset...

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 still continue to spread and affects most nations globally to date. In this context, community knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) toward COVID-19 are the most important for controlling and preventing the infectious pandemic disease. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to investigate the factors associated with community practices related to COVID-19. METHODS: Cross-sectional study was conducted on 330 residents of Sumedang District, Indonesia...

OBJECTIVES: We investigated how booster interval affects the risks of SARS-CoV-2 infection and Covid-19-related hospitalization and death in different age groups. METHODS: We collected data on booster receipts and Covid-19 outcomes between September 22, 2021 and February 9, 2023 for 5,769,205 North Carolina residents ≥12 years of age who had completed their primary vaccination series. We related Covid-19 outcomes to baseline characteristics and booster doses through Cox regression models...

INTRODUCTION: People living with HIV (PLWH) often experience difficulties in everyday functioning, which can arise in part from deficits in the strategic/executive aspects of prospective memory (PM). Using Suchy's Contextually Valid Executive Assessment (ConVExA) framework, this study sought to determine whether the contextual factors of busyness and routine moderate the relationship between the strategic/executive aspects of PM and everyday functioning in older PLWH. METHODS: Participants in this cross-sectional analysis were 145 PLWH aged 50 years and older who had completed the Martin and Park Environmental Demands (MPED) questionnaire of routine and busyness, the performance-based Cambridge Test of Prospective Memory, and self-report measures of activities of daily living (ADLs) and cognitive symptoms in daily life...

The brown dog tick or Rhipicephalus sanguineus sensu lato is an ixodid tick, responsible for the dissemination of pathogens that cause canine infectious diseases besides inflicting the direct effects of tick bite. The hot humid climate of Kerala, a south Indian state, is favorable for propagation of tick vectors and acaricides are the main stay of tick control. Though the resistance against synthetic pyrethroids is reported among these species, the status of amitraz resistance in R. sanguineus s. l. in the country is uncertain due to the lack of molecular characterization data and scarce literature reports...