One world, one hope: the cost of providing antiretroviral therapy to all nations.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the potential direct cost of making triple combination antiretroviral therapy widely available to HIV-positive adults and children living in countries throughout the world.

METHODS: For each country, antiretroviral costs were obtained by multiplying the annual cost of triple antiretroviral therapy by the estimated number of HIV-positive persons accessing therapy. Per capita antiretroviral costs were computed by dividing the antiretroviral costs by the country's total population. The potential economic burden was calculated by dividing per capita antiretroviral costs by the gross national product (GNP) per capita. All values are expressed in 1997 US dollars.

RESULTS: The potential cost of making triple combination antiretroviral therapy available to HIV-positive individuals throughout the world was estimated to be over US$ 65.8 billion. By far the greatest financial burden was on sub-Saharan Africa. The highest per capita drug cost in this region would be incurred in the subregions of Southern Africa (US$ 149) followed by East Africa (US$ 116), Middle Africa (US$ 44), and West Africa (US$ 42). In the Americas, subregional data indicated the highest per capita drug cost would be in the Latin Caribbean (US$ 22), followed by the Caribbean (US$ 17), Andean Area (US$ 7), the Southern Cone (US$ 6), North America (US$ 6), and Central American Isthmus (US$ 5). In Asia and Europe the percentage of the GNP necessary to finance drug therapy was less than 1% in most countries examined.

CONCLUSION: Our results demonstrate that the cost of making combination antiretroviral therapy available worldwide would be exceedingly high, especially in countries with limited financial resources.