Loss of Medicaid Coverage During the Renewal Process.

IMPORTANCE: Medicaid beneficiaries must periodically redemonstrate their eligibility in a process that is called renewal, redetermination, or recertification. The number and characteristics of people who lose Medicaid coverage due to renewal requirements are not known.

OBJECTIVE: To measure the proportion of people who lose Medicaid coverage at the renewal deadline, overall and by enrollee characteristics, and time until regaining Medicaid coverage among those losing coverage at the deadline.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This cohort study tracked the duration of Medicaid enrollment among Wisconsin Medicaid enrollees with a 12-month renewal deadline. Data were collected for all nonelderly (aged <65 years) new enrollees from January 2016 through January 2018, except those enrolled due to disability or pregnancy. Individuals were followed through January 2020 to provide at least 24 months of data on each enrollment spell. Data were analyzed from August 2023 to February 2024.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary outcome was coverage loss during the renewal process, defined as a loss in Medicaid coverage from month 12 to month 13 for people who were still enrolled at the start of month 12. Secondary outcomes included coverage loss prior to the renewal deadline and the duration of the gap in Medicaid coverage among those who lost coverage during the renewal process.

RESULTS: The study sample included 684 245 Medicaid enrollment spells across 586 044 people (51% female and 47% children 18 years or younger). Among enrollees, 20% lost Medicaid coverage at the renewal deadline. Of those who lost coverage, 37% regained Medicaid coverage within 6 months, and an additional 10% regained coverage within 12 months. Children younger than 12 years and people with more Medicaid-covered health care (top quartile of Medicaid-covered health care costs during the first 6 months of enrollment) were less likely than other groups to lose coverage during the renewal process (15% and 6% lost coverage at renewal, respectively) and more likely to regain Medicaid quickly. Personal characteristics such as gender and race and ethnicity remained associated with the risk of losing Medicaid at the renewal deadline after adjustment for baseline household income, enrollment group, and past use of Medicaid services.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this cohort study, the risk of coverage loss during the Medicaid renewal process was associated with age, past use of care, and other personal characteristics. These findings shed light on how renewal requirements shape access to Medicaid.