Public Health Relevance of US EPA Air Quality Index Activity Recommendations.

IMPORTANCE: Reducing exposure to fine particulate matter (<2.5 μm [PM2.5]) air pollution improves cardiopulmonary morbidity and mortality. However, the public health relevance of air quality index (AQI) activity guidelines under present-day environmental conditions in the US has not been critically assessed.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the public health relevance of following PM2.5 AQI activity guidance in preventing serious atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) and pulmonary events among adults in the US.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This cross-sectional modeling study involved the general adult population and sensitive individuals as designated by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), including adults with preexisting ASCVD or lung disease (asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease). The study was conducted between August 1, 2023, and January 31, 2024.

EXPOSURES: Daily AQI strata for PM2.5 and the corresponding activity recommendations.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The main outcome was the number needed to treat (NNT) per day by following activity guidance across daily AQI strata to prevent 1 serious ASCVD or pulmonary event among relevant populations. To calculate PM2.5-induced excess disease event rates per day, estimated baseline disease-specific daily event rates for each group were multiplied by the increase in risks due to PM2.5 levels at each AQI stratum. The number of events prevented per day was calculated by multiplying each excess disease event rate by the percentage in exposure reduction plausibly incurred by following population-specific activity guidance at each AQI level. The NNT is the reciprocal of the number of events prevented.

RESULTS: The NNT to prevent ASCVD events was high for the general population and for patients with ASCVD across all AQI strata. The range of values was comparatively lower to prevent pulmonary events among adults with lung disease. During most days (96%) when activity recommendations were promulgated due to elevated PM2.5 (AQI, 101-200), the NNT to prevent a serious disease event remained very high for the general population (>18 million), patients with ASCVD (approximately 1.6-5 million), and adults with lung disease (approximately 66 000-202 000).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: These findings suggest that existing PM2.5 AQI activity recommendations are of questionable public health relevance in present-day conditions and merit consideration for updating to improve their potential effectiveness.