Estimation of the population size of gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men in Canada, 2020.

BACKGROUND: Gay or bisexual (GB) and other men who have sex with men (MSM) are disproportionately affected by human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) globally and domestically in Canada. Reliable and recent population size estimates are necessary to allocate resources to meet prevention needs and for modelling the HIV epidemic. However, previous direct estimates did not account for GB men who would not reveal their sexual identity to a government survey, nor MSM not identifying as GB. The objective of this study was to develop two national population size estimates of gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (gbMSM) in 2020. First, GB men based on identity, regardless of sexual experience, and MSM who do not identify as GB but reported anal sex with a man in the past 1-5 years ("Identity-or-Behaviour" estimate). Second, an estimate of gbMSM who reported past 6-12 months anal sex with a man ("Behaviour-only" estimate).

METHODS: Estimates for males aged 15 years and older were drawn from Statistics Canada's population size estimates, the Canadian Community Health Survey and the Community-Based Research Centre's Sex Now Survey. Estimated proportions of GB identity, those not likely to disclose GB identity and MSM who do not identify as GB but who reported past 1-5 years anal sex were applied. Past 6-12 months anal sex history was subsequently used to limit estimates to those sexually active anally.

RESULTS: It was estimated that 3.5% of the male population in Canada aged 15 years and older identified as GB. Of GB males, 86.5% were likely to disclose their sexual identity to a government survey. A further 0.1% of non-GB identified males reported past year anal sex with a man. The national Identity-or-Behaviour gbMSM population size in 2020 was estimated at 669,613 people, equivalent to 4.3% of the Canadian male population aged 15 years and older. The estimate of Behaviour-only gbMSM was 412,186, representing 2.6% of the Canadian male population aged 15 years and older.

CONCLUSION: Using data from multiple sources, a model applied to estimate the population size of gbMSM, accounting for populations previously not included in prior estimates, has been described.