Establishment of inflammation biomarkers-based nomograms to predict prognosis of advanced colorectal cancer patients based on real world data.

PURPOSE: To establish three novel prognostic nomograms with inflammatory factors for advanced colorectal cancer (ACRC), right-sided colon cancer (RSCC) and left-sided colorectal cancer (LSCRC) according to real world data.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: ACRC patients receiving medicine therapy from January 1st, 2005 to September 31th, 2015 in Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center were enrolled. Inflammatory indicators such as the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), the platelet-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA 19-9), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and C-reactive protein (CRP) were analyzed for establishing nomograms predicting overall survival (OS). Concordance index (C-index) determined predictive accuracy and discriminative ability.

RESULTS: Our study selected 807 ACRC patients, 29.6% RSCC and 70.4% LSCRC. Median OS was 23.36 months. Patients at lower level of NLR, PLR, CEA, CA 19-9, LDH and CRP showed longer OS (P < 0.001). For all patients, pathological grade (P = 0.018), treatments (P = 0.042), sidedness (P = 0.003), NLR (P < 0.001), CA 19-9 (P < 0.001), LDH (P < 0.001) and CRP (P = 0.0012) contributed to OS independently. For RSCC, pathological grade (P = 0.022), CA 19-9 (P < 0.001), LDH (P < 0.001) and CRP (P = 0.001) were significantly related with OS. For LSCRC patients, treatments (cetuximab vs chemotherapy: P = 0.008; bevacizumab vs chemotherapy: P = 0.166), NLR (P < 0.001), CA 19-9 (P = 0.030) and LDH (P < 0.001) were independent factors for OS. Final models showed acceptable internal validity with C-indexes of 0.687, 0.697 and 0.667 in all, RSCC and LSCRC patients.

CONCLUSIONS: Inflammatory factors enrolled in the proposed nomograms showed accurately individualized prognostic prediction, and prognostic factors for RSCC and LSCRC were different.