Risk stratification of severe aortic stenosis according to new guidelines: long term outcomes.

Background: Current ESC and ACC/AHA guidelines for the management of valvular heart disease assign a class Ia indication for aortic valve replacement (AVR) only to patients with symptomatic severe aortic valve stenosis and asymptomatic patients with depressed left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF <50%) or positive exercise test. We examined the long-term outcomes for patients undergoing AVR for aortic stenosis over a 11-year period at our institution compared to current international guidelines for AVR.

Methods: Patients who had undergone isolated AVR for severe aortic valve stenosis between January 2001 and December 2012 were selected. The population was divided into subgroups based on preoperative LVEF (< or ≥50%) and on presence/absence of symptoms (NYHA =I or ≥II, respectively).

Results: We identified 607 patients with a median follow-up (FU) time of 5.75 years (IQR 3.24-8.00 years). The presence of symptoms did not have a significant impact on cardiovascular mortality (P=0.201). Patients with LVEF <50% displayed a higher long-term cardiovascular mortality rate (P=0.015). Multivariate analysis showed that preserved LVEF was a protective factor for asymptomatic patients (P=0.021), while preoperative LVEF did not affect the mortality rate in symptomatic patients (HR 0.88; 95% CI, 0.54-1.44). Correspondingly, asymptomatic patients with reduced LVEF were found to be at a higher risk of long-term mortality compared to the other groups (P=0.011). The only other independent risk factor for death was age (HR 6.46; 95% CI, 2.22-18.76).

Conclusions: According to our data, current international class I indications for symptomatic patients ensure good long-term survival, while class I indications for asymptomatic patients with reduced LVEF are associated with poor long-term survival. Our results suggest that early surgery should also be considered also for asymptomatic patients with preserved LVEF, particularly in cases of very low operative risk.