The Causal Relationship between Childhood Adversity and Developmental Trajectories of Delinquency: A Consideration of Genetic and Environmental Confounds.

An extensive line of research has found that children exposed to multiple forms of early life adversity are more likely to engage in high levels of delinquent behavior during adolescence. Several studies examining this association have used a range of multivariate statistical techniques capable of controlling for observable covariates. Fewer studies have used family-based research designs to additionally control for unobservable confounds, such as genetic and shared environmental influences, that may be associated with exposure to childhood adversity and delinquency. The current study analyzes self-report data on 2534 full-siblings (50% female) from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 to conduct a sibling-comparison analysis to provide a rigorous test of the causal hypothesis that exposure to childhood adversity causes differences in developmental patterns of delinquent behavior. Results from multivariate latent growth curve models revealed that childhood adversity was associated with higher starting levels of delinquency during adolescence and slower rates of decline from adolescence to emerging adulthood. Results from multivariate sibling-comparison models, however, revealed that siblings exposed to higher levels of childhood adversity reported higher starting levels of delinquent behavior, but not slower declines over time, suggesting that childhood adversity may not be directly associated with long-term patterns of delinquent behavior after genetic and shared environmental factors are taken into account. Implications of these results for future research are discussed.