Prediction of early mortality following stereotactic body radiotherapy for peripheral early-stage lung cancer.

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE: To investigate prognostic factors for death within 6 months of stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) for patients with peripheral early-stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC).

MATERIALS AND METHODS: This analysis included 586 NSCLC patients with peripheral tumors treated with SBRT. Potential patient and tumor prognostic factors, including the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and Cumulative Illness Rating Scale (CIRS), were analyzed by logistic regression analysis for association with early mortality (death <6 months after SBRT). Additionally, CCI and CIRS were compared with respect to their predictive ability for early mortality by comparing multivariate models with each comorbidity index, and assessing their respective discriminatory abilities (C-index).

RESULTS: A total of 36 patients (6.1%) died within 6 months of the start of SBRT. With a median follow-up of 25 months, 3-year overall survival was 54%. CIRS and tumor diameter were significant predictors of early mortality on multivariate analysis (p = .001). Patients with a CIRS score of 8 or higher and a tumor diameter over 3 cm had a 6-month survival of 70% versus 97% for those lacking these two features (p < .001). CCI was not predictive for early mortality on univariate nor multivariate analysis; the model containing CCI had a C-index of 0.65 versus 0.70 for the model containing CIRS.

CONCLUSION: CIRS and tumor diameter predict for early-mortality in peripheral early-stage NSCLC treated with SBRT. CIRS may be a more useful comorbidity index than CCI in this population when assessing short-term life expectancy.