A steady decline in pancreas transplantation rates.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: After years of growth in many pancreas transplant programs, UNOS has reported declining transplant numbers in the USA. This precipitating trend urges for an evaluation of the transplant numbers and scientific productivity in the Eurotransplant region and the UK.

METHODS: We performed a trend analysis of pancreas transplantation rates, between 1997 and 2016, adjusting for changes in population size, and an analysis of scientific publications in this field. We used information from the UNOS, Eurotransplant, and UK transplant registry and bibliometric information from the Web of Science database.

RESULTS: Between 2004 and 2016 there was an average annual decline in pancreas transplantation rates per million inhabitants of 3.3% in the USA and 2.5% in the Eurotransplant region. In the UK, transplant numbers showed an average annual decline of 1.0% from 2009 to 2016. Publications in Q1 journals showed an annual change of -2.1% and +20.1%, before 2004, and a change of -3.8% and -5.5%, between 2004 and 2016, for USA and Eurotransplant publications, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS: Adjusting pancreas transplantation rates for changes in population size showed a clear decline in transplant numbers in both the USA and Eurotransplant region, with first signs of decline in the UK. Following this trend, the number of scientific publications in this field have declined worldwide.