Role of Clinical and Imaging Risk Factors in Predicting Breast Cancer Diagnosis Among BI-RADS 4 Cases.

PURPOSE: To analyze women with suspicious findings (assessed as Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System [BI-RADS] 4), examining the value of clinical and imaging predictors in predicting cancer diagnosis.

PATIENTS AND METHODS: A set of 2138 examinations (1978 women) given a BI-RADS 4 with matching pathology results were analyzed. Predictors such as patient demographics, clinical risk factors, and imaging-derived features such as BI-RADS assessment and qualitative breast density were considered. Independent predictors of breast cancer were determined by univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression.

RESULTS: In univariate analysis, age, race, body mass index, age at first live birth, BI-RADS assessment, qualitative breast density, and risk triggers were found to be independent predictors. In multivariate analysis, age, BI-RADS score, breast density, race, presence of a lump, and number of risk triggers were the most predictive. An integrative logistic regression model achieved a performance of 0.84 cross-validated area under the curve. No variable was a constant independent predictor when stratifying the population on the basis of the BI-RADS score.

CONCLUSION: While BI-RADS assessment remains the strongest predictor of breast cancer, the inclusion of clinical risk factors such as age, breast density, presence of a lump, and number of risk triggers derived from guidelines improves the specificity of identifying individuals with imaging descriptors associated with BI-RADS 4A and 4B that are more likely to be diagnosed with breast cancer.