Nomograms for estimating survival in patients with liver-only colorectal metastases: A retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to develop and validate nomograms for individual risk prediction in patients with liver-only colorectal metastases (CRLM).

METHODS: Histologically confirmed CRLM diagnosed between 2010 and 2015 were analysed from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to obtain independent prognostic factors to build nomograms for predicting 1- and 3-year overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS). The predictive accuracy of the nomogram was determined by concordance index (C-index) and calibration plots.

RESULTS: A total of 9615 patients with CRLM were included in the study. A nomogram predicting OS was constructed according to 9 independent clinicopathological factors. A nomogram predicting CSS was constructed based on the same 9 factors. The C-indexes of the nomograms were significantly better than the TNM staging system (7th edition) in both sets for predicting both OS and CSS. The calibration plots displayed an optimal agreement between the predictive results and the actual observed outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS: The proposed nomograms can help clinicians calculate the probability in patients with CRLM.