Development and validation of a prognostic model for kidney function 1 year after combined pancreas and kidney transplantation using pre-transplant donor and recipient variables.

PURPOSE: The widening gap between demand and supply of organs for transplantation provides extraordinary challenges for ethical donor organ allocation rules. The transplant community is forced to define favorable recipient/donor combinations for simultaneous kidney-pancreas transplantation. The aim of this study is the development of a prognostic model for the prediction of kidney function 1 year after simultaneous pancreas and kidney transplantation using pre-transplant donor and recipient variables with subsequent internal and external validation.

METHODS: Included were patients with end-stage renal failure due to diabetic nephropathy. Multivariable logistic regression modeling was applied for prognostic model design with retrospective data from Hannover Medical School, Germany (01.01.2000-31.12.2011) followed by prospective internal validation (01 Jan. 2012-31 Dec. 2015). Retrospective data from another German transplant center in Kiel was retrieved for external model validation via the initially derived logit link function.

RESULTS: The developed prognostic model is able to predict kidney graft function 1 year after transplantation ≥ KDIGO stage III with high areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve in the development cohort (0.943) as well as the internal (0.807) and external validation cohorts (0.784).

CONCLUSION: The proposed validated model is a valuable tool to optimize present allocation rules with the goal to prevent transplant futility. It might be used to support donor organ acceptance decisions for individual recipients.