Development of a preoperative prediction nomogram for lymph node metastasis in colorectal cancer based on a novel serum miRNA signature and CT scans.

BACKGROUND: Preoperative prediction of lymph node (LN) status is of crucial importance for appropriate treatment planning in patients with colorectal cancer (CRC). In this study, we sought to develop and validate a non-invasive nomogram model to preoperatively predict LN metastasis in CRC.

METHODS: Development of the nomogram entailed three subsequent stages with specific patient sets. In the discovery set (n = 20), LN-status-related miRNAs were screened from high-throughput sequencing data of human CRC serum samples. In the training set (n = 218), a miRNA panel-clinicopathologic nomogram was developed by logistic regression analysis for preoperative prediction of LN metastasis. In the validation set (n = 198), we validated the above nomogram with respect to its discrimination, calibration and clinical application.

FINDINGS: Four differently expressed miRNAs (miR-122-5p, miR-146b-5p, miR-186-5p and miR-193a-5p) were identified in the serum samples from CRC patients with and without LN metastasis, which also had regulatory effects on CRC cell migration. The combined miRNA panel could provide higher LN prediction capability compared with computed tomography (CT) scans (P < .0001 in both the training and validation sets). Furthermore, a nomogram integrating the miRNA-based panel and CT-reported LN status was constructed in the training set, which performed well in both the training and validation sets (AUC: 0.913 and 0.883, respectively). Decision curve analysis demonstrated the clinical usefulness of the nomogram.

INTERPRETATION: Our nomogram is a reliable prediction model that can be conveniently and efficiently used to improve the accuracy of preoperative prediction of LN metastasis in patients with CRC.