Aortoiliac calcification correlates with 5-year survival after abdominal aortic aneurysm repair.

BACKGROUND: An anatomic severity grade (ASG) score to categorize and to define anatomic factors for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair was proposed. Other studies have previously reported that aortic anatomic complexity is a marker of survival and resource utilization after repair, although it remains unclear whether individual components of the ASG score independently contribute to survival. This study analyzed and validated an aortic and iliac artery calcium scoring system that can potentially predict survival after AAA repair.

METHODS: Patients who underwent infrarenal AAA repairs from July 2007 to May 2012 were analyzed using complete 5-year records. Those who died ≤30 days of surgery were excluded. Calcium score (CS) was defined using the ASG scoring system for its basis by preoperative imaging <6 months before surgery. A CS for any patient was 0 to 5 points, the sum of the points assigned to aortic neck (2 points total) and iliac artery (3 points total) calcification. A receiver operating characteristic curve was used to determine a CS threshold for mortality. The 5-year survivors and deaths were compared in regard to comorbidities, pharmacology, and CS at or above the defined threshold. Each variable with a P value <.1 between the groups was then placed into a Cox proportional hazards model, with statistical significance of P < .05.

RESULTS: There were 356 patients who underwent AAA repair with complete 5-year follow-up data; 26% died within 5 years of surgery. Of these, 13% had CS of 0 with 15% mortality, 28% had CS of 1 with 21% mortality, 24% had CS of 2 with 24% mortality, 23% had CS of 3 with 35% mortality, 10% had CS of 4 with 40% mortality, and 2% had CS of 5 with 17% mortality. The receiver operating characteristic curve demonstrated an appropriate threshold of CS 3. Of these patients, 65% had a CS <3, whereas 35% had a CS ≥3. Patients with a CS ≥3 had a lower 5-year survival probability (P = .003). Comparing 5-year survivors and deaths in a Cox proportional hazards analysis, CS ≥3 was associated with a hazard ratio of 1.579 (95% confidence interval, 1.038-2.402; P = .0328).

CONCLUSIONS: A CS ≥3 is linked to a lower 5-year survival after AAA repair in our population. This system potentially can be another measure for risk stratification and serve as a means to predict midterm mortality in AAA repairs. Future study will be needed for further validation to predict midterm mortality and to better guide surgical decision-making.