Current emissions and future mitigation pathways of coal-fired power plants in China from 2010 to 2030.

As the largest energy infrastructure in China, power sector consumed approximately half of China's coal over the past decade and threatened air quality and greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement target. In this work, we assessed the evolution of coal-fired power plants and associated emissions in China during 2010-2030 by using a unit-based emission projection model which integrated the historical power plants information, turnover of the future power plant fleet, and the evolution of end-of-pipe control technologies. We found that, driven by the stringent environmental legislation, SO2 , NO x , and PM2.5 emissions from coal-fired power plants decreased by 49%, 45%, and 24% respectively during 2010-2015, comparing to 15% increase in CO2 emissions. In contrast to ever-increasing CO2 emissions until 2030 under current energy development planning, we found aggressive energy development planning could curb CO2 emissions from the peak before 2030. Owing to the implementation of "near zero" emission control policy, we projected emissions of air pollutants will significantly decrease during 2016-2030. Early retirement of small and low-efficient power plants would further reduce air pollutants and CO2 emissions. Our study explored various mitigation pathways for China's coal-fired power plants, which could reduce coal consumptions, air pollutants and CO2 emissions, and improve the energy efficiency.