Prognostic utility of novel biomarkers in acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) associated with hepatitis B: A multicenter prospective study.

AIM: Flare-ups of chronic hepatitis B can sometimes be severe and even progress to acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), with high short-term mortality. A timely estimation of the risk of death should be initiated early. The aim of the present study was to determine whether novel biomarkers add prognostic information beyond current clinical scoring systems.

METHODS: Patients with hepatitis B-associated ACLF were prospectively enrolled from five hospitals in China between August 2017 and March 2018. Their plasma was screened for soluble CD163 (sCD163), neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL), and copeptin. The association between these biomarkers and mortality was analyzed. The performance of the Model for End-stage Liver Disease, Asian-Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver-ACLF Research Consortium score, and the Chronic Liver Failure Consortium ACLF score, with or without biomarkers, were compared.

RESULTS: One hundred fifty one patients were enrolled. Advanced ACLF patients had significantly higher levels than early ACLF individuals of plasma biomarkers sCD163 (P = 0.001), NGAL (P = 0.006), and copeptin (P = 0.049). Thirty-four deaths occurred during the 28-day follow-up period (22.5%). Both sCD163 and NGAL showed a strong independent association with 28-day mortality, whereas copeptin did not. Scoring systems incorporating sCD163 and NGAL had better discrimination and calibration, as measured by area under the receiver operating characteristic curves, the Akaike information criteria, integrated discrimination improvement, and net reclassification improvement.

CONCLUSIONS: Soluble CD163 and NGAL are independently associated with short-term mortality in hepatitis B-associated ACLF. Use of a combination of sCD163 and NGAL improves prognostication.