A preoperative risk score to predict red blood cell transfusion in patients undergoing hysterectomy for ovarian cancer.

BACKGROUND: Patients with ovarian cancer experience a high rate of anemia throughout their treatment course, with rates that range from 19-95%. Blood transfusions offer symptom relief but may be costly, are limited in supply, and have been associated with worse 30-day surgical morbidity and mortality rates.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to identify risk factors for blood transfusion with packed red blood cell and to develop a transfusion risk score to identify patients who undergo surgery for ovarian cancer and who are at lowest risk for a blood transfusion. Our aim was to help clinicians identify those patients who may not require a crossmatch to encourage resource use and cost-savings.

STUDY DESIGN: This is a retrospective database cohort study of 3470 patients who underwent hysterectomy for ovarian cancer with the use the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database from 2014-2016. The association between risk factors with respect to 30-day postoperative blood transfusion was modeled with the use of logistic regression. A risk score to predict blood transfusion was created.

RESULTS: Eight hundred ninety-one (25.7%) patients received a blood transfusion. In multivariate analysis, blood transfusion was associated independently with age (odds ratio, 1.90, P<.01), African American race (odds ratio, 2.30; P<.01), ascites (odds ratio, 1.89; P=.02), preoperative hematocrit level <30% (odds ratio, 10.70; P<.01), preoperative platelet count >400×109 /L (odds ratio, 1.75; P<.01), occurrence of disseminated cancer (odds ratio, 1.71; P<.01), open surgical approach (odds ratio, 7.88; P<.01), operative time >3 hours (odds ratio, 2.19; P<.01), and additional surgical procedures that included large bowel resection (odds ratio, 4.23; P<.01), bladder/ureter resection (odds ratio, 1.69; P=.02), and pelvic exenteration (P=.02). A preoperative risk score that used age, race, ascites, preoperative hematocrit level, platelets, presence of disseminated cancer, planned hysterectomy approach, and procedures accurately predicted blood transfusion with good discriminatory ability (C-statistic=0.80 [P<.001]; C-statistic=0.69 [P<.001] for derivation and validation datasets, respectively) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit, P=.081; P=.56 for derivation and validation datasets, respectively).

CONCLUSION: Patients who undergo hysterectomy for ovarian cancer experience a high incidence of blood transfusions in the perioperative period. Preoperative risk factors and planned surgical procedures can be used in our transfusion risk score to help predict anticipated blood requirements.