Incidence of abdominal obesity and its risk factors among Tehranian adults.

OBJECTIVE: Abdominal obesity (AO) is a relative risk factor for cardiovascular events. We aimed to determine the 6-year incidence of AO and its risk factors among Tehranian adults.Design/Setting/SubjectsIn this population-based cohort study, non-abdominally obese participants, aged ≥20 years, were followed for incidence of AO. Cumulative incidence and incidence rate of AO were calculated for each sex. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to determine the association of potential risk factors including age, BMI, dysmetabolic state, smoking, marital status, educational level and physical activity (PA).

RESULTS: A total of 5044 participants (1912 men) were followed for a median of 6 years. Mean age was 37·7 (sd 13·5) years at baseline, with mean BMI of 24·3 (sd 3·1) kg/m2 (men, 23·0 (sd 2·4) kg/m2; women, 25·0 (sd 3·2) kg/m2). During follow-up, 3093 (1373 men) developed AO with total cumulative incidence of 76·02, 83·59 and 70·90 %, for the whole population, men and women, respectively. Corresponding incidence rates were 96·0, 138·7 and 77·1 per 1000 person-years. The highest incidence rate was observed during their 30s and 50s, in men and women, respectively. Subjects with dysmetabolic state in both sexes, married women, men with lower PA and higher educational levels at baseline were at higher risk of AO.

CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of AO is high among Tehranian adults, especially in young men. The risk factors for developing AO should be highlighted to halt this growing trend of AO.